Decision-Dependent Stochastic Generation Expansion Planning with Large Amounts of Wind Power

Power generation expansion planning needs to deal with future uncertainties carefully, given that the invested generation assets will be in operation for a long time. Many stochastic programming models have been proposed to tackle this challenge. However, most previous works assume predetermined future uncertainties (i.e., fixed random outcomes with given probabilities). In several recent studies of generation assets’ planning (e.g., thermal versus renewable), new findings show that the investment decisions could affect the future uncertainties as well. To this end, this paper proposes a multistage, decisiondependent stochastic optimization model for long-term, largescale generation expansion planning where large amounts of wind power are involved. In the decision-dependent model, the future uncertainties are not only affecting but also affected by the current decisions. The proposed multistage, decision-dependent model takes infrastructure expansion, power generation and electricity prices into account to compute the long-term profit. In particular, the probability distribution function is determined by not only input parameters but also decision variables. To deal with the nonlinear constraints in our model, a quasiexact solution approach is then introduced to reformulate the multistage stochastic investment model to be a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model. The wind penetration, investment decisions, and the optimality of decision-dependent model are evaluated in a series of multistage case studies. The results show that the proposed decision-dependent model provides effective optimization solutions for long-term generation expansion planning.